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Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Real Madrid win: 56.5%

Draw: 22.6%

Villarreal win: 20.9%

Predicted: Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 43.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.45

More corners: Real Madrid (64.7% home / 35.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Real Madrid

Yes

Probability Real Madrid wins or draws: 71.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Real Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (56% vs next-best 23%). (56.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score No (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Real Madrid (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Real Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.